Staying on Track 🏃‍♀️

How to Overcome the Planning Fallacy in Design Projects

I manage a team of six product designers as a Product Design Manager in a leading Web3 company. When Junior Product Designers or even Senior Designers are given a task or design assignment, I frequently see that they don’t take enough time to plan out or comprehend the strategy.

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing when working alone; iterations are always beneficial to relearn; however, in a corporate setting, deadlines are just as important because they affect the overall launch.

The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias that has an impact on how people plan and estimate how long it will take to complete a task.

This bias can have a significant impact on product designers, as it can lead to delays and missed deadlines in the development of new products.

What Causes Planning Fallacy

Less Experience working on similar projects

Many freshers in design, due to lack of experience can have problem predicting how much time a certain problem/task can take to complete. Without this information about past projects or similar experiences, designers may have an unrealistic idea of how long it will take to complete a project, leading to delays and missed deadlines.

This is known as “availability heuristic” where people tend to rely on the most easily available examples when making judgments about the probability of an event. An example of “availability heuristic” in product design can be a new product launch that was delayed due to the lack of accurate data on the time it takes to complete similar tasks in the past. The design team may have underestimated the time required to develop the product because they did not have references or experience from previous projects.

Overestimation or underestimation of one’s ability to complete tasks

One of the main causes of the planning fallacy is the tendency for people to overestimate their ability to complete tasks on time. This can happen when designers are overly optimistic about the complexity of a project or the capabilities of their team. They may not take into account potential roadblocks or delays that could occur during the development process, leading to unrealistic timelines and expectations. This is known as the “optimism bias” which is a cognitive bias that causes people to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the likelihood of negative events. An example of the “optimism bias” in product design can be seen in a new product launch that was delayed due to unforeseen technical difficulties. The design team may have been overly optimistic about the ease of development and underestimated the complexity of the project.

Steps to avoid Planning Fallacy

• Step 1: Establishing a clear project plan or a PRD with specific milestones and deadlines
• Step 2: Create a Strategy with timelines. Gather data using Past References from Similar Projects or alternatively consult from Senior Designers
• Step 3: Keep monitoring the project plan & update it with any changes/reviews.
• Step 4: Maintain a culture of transparency and open communication within the team

Let’s dive deeper into the steps with an example:

(To explain steps clearly, I am taking an example of long term research project here. We follow same process for products and iterations too):)

Step 1: Create a project planning document

Designers should be realistic about the complexity of a project and the capabilities of their team. This includes taking into account any potential roadblocks or delays that may occur during the development process.

But how can we do this? By establishing a clear project plan with specific milestones and deadlines. This will help ensure that everyone on the team is aware of the project schedule and can work together to meet it.

So within our team, after gathering the requirement, we create a Problem Scope Document.

For an example, we have initiated a research and our document looks something like this👆

Step 2: Create a strategy with timelines

To create strategy better, designers should take references from similar tasks in the past. This is tough initially but as one becomes experienced this helps a lot. This information can be used to create more realistic project timelines and help identify potential problem areas.

This is known as “reference class forecasting” where designers use data from similar projects to make more accurate predictions about the timeline and resources needed for the current project.

If designer’s experience is less working on practical projects, it’s best to consult a senior designer & take help while defining timelines. This can include asking them about blockers they usually faced in a similar kind of project, or what should be remembered while creating guidelines.

Step 2a: Create a Strategy section where we decide on high level tasks👍.

Step 2b: We further breakdown those high level tasks into subtasks. This can involve a lot of trivial tasks such as getting approvals, reviews, last minute changes, QA etc👊.

Step 2c: Now start by assigning number of days based on your experience or if not by assumptions. Mention the rough dates⏱.

Step 3: Keep the project plan updated

There should be a system of continuous monitoring, review and updating of the project plan. This will help ensure that the project stays on track and that any delays or missed deadlines are identified and addressed as soon as possible. This can be achieved through regular async DM’s, project status meetings or progress reports.

Keep the document updated. Revise the document if anything changes or if there is a delay or a blocker✍️.

Step 4: Transparency and Open Communication

Designers should establish a culture of transparency and open communication within the team to ensure that everyone is aware of the progress, challenges and risks associated with the project. This will enable the team to work together and make necessary adjustments to keep the project on track.

Share the delay reasons and document with your stakeholders or update on Slack. This ensures transparency & Open Communication. Yay, you are done! 👏.

Wrapping up

The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias that can have a significant impact on the work of product designers.

To avoid its effects, designers should make themselves conscious about the complexity of a project, create a clear project plan, take references from similar projects from past or take help from senior, and regularly review and update the project plan. By taking these steps, designers can help ensure that new products are developed on schedule and to the highest quality standards.

Thank you for reading my article. Share it with others if you think it’s helpful.